Monday, September 20, 2010

Dan Gilbert on our mistaken expectations

      This TED talk was very similar in idea to Dan Ariely's talk, although he made different points and had different examples. What stood out in Dan's presentation, for me, was his central theme revolving around Bernoulli's expectation equation, which stated that expected value equals the odds of gain multiplied by the value of gain. All his examples tied into that main idea, and thus made it easy to see what he was trying to prove and say.
     His data and instances were also very interesting, and like Dan Ariely's, were easy to relate to. I felt like I have made the mistakes he talked about, especially where people compare to the past instead of possibility, and how people make decisions based on the comparison. For example, I would have been one of those people who would drive across town to save $100 on just a car stereo, but I wouldn't have if it was saving $100 on the car. Or one of those people who would have taken the $50 now instead of $60 in a month, but would have waited a month if I was getting $50 in a year and $60 in 13 months. I found myself guilty of the irrational behavior he explained, and thus this TED talk was very eye-opening and enjoyable for me.

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